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www.brownpaper.com |
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September Babies ———————— Susan Thompson—2nd Barbara Shea—3rd Karina Pirone—4th Vicki Finch—7th John Millar—27th |
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to John Demarco at MeadWestvaco on his recent promotion to Manager of Uncoated Product Lines. John recently completed his MBA, graduating with honors from Ohio State. Way to go John.... |
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School is Open Please Drive Carefully |
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RISI~Paper Trader – July 2003
Uncoated Freesheet We are tempering both our long-term and short-term forecasts for uncoated freesheet demand due to a re-assessment of the prospects for bond & writing paper demand. We still expect a demand recovery in 2004 and 2005, but we have reduced the magnitude of that recovery to 1.9% in 2004 and 1.8% in 2005.
It still looks as though uncoated freesheet demand will post itsfourth year of decline in 2003. Demand was down 0.5% for the first half of the year and will see a similar decline in the second half (despite stronger demand because of tougher comparisons to a strong second half of 2002).
We believe that the poor prospects for demand combined with a renewed and accelerating decline in prices over the past two months will prompt producers to announce further capacity shutdowns for late 2003 and 2004. We have assumed another 100,000 tons of capacity closure in our forecast in addition to the long list that has already occurred over the past few years.
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